My sense is that...


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Posted by Hank on Sunday, May 03, 2009 at 21:37:44 :

In Reply to: O.T. ammuntion posted by Jay M on Sunday, May 03, 2009 at 00:17:43 :

... stocks were down in the past 18 motnhs or so due to heavy demands in the Mid East, and also prices incresed due to huge increases in the price of metals. Manufacturers did not want to add capacity, because the trend was not long term, ergo shortages and crazy prices for existing stocks.

Then the economy collapsed, and now metal prices are down, and the military demand has started to ease, so inventory was creeping back.

But just then, the Obama thing hit, coupled with (groundless) fear of widespread economic recession and possible general social unrest. Add a touch of Swine Flu, and we're back to hoarding/panic buying.

Eventually, I think that production will saturate the demands of the hoarders (a particular problem with primers right now), and things will get back on a more or less even keel. Hoarders can only hoard so much. Stocks will return in the next 6 months or so, and I can stop reloading 5.56mm ball ammo. The day of $.07 rifle rounds may not return, but this $1.00 per round thing will not last. When things calm down longer term, stocks of surplus will be available again as the stuff gets sold off by the people we and the Russians are selling it to now.

The Obama fear will remain; he has shown no real hesitation to break any promise made in the past. But it is going to take him awhile, and assault rifle prices have already begun to recede a bit.

PW Content: The Soviet and Chinese Communists really liked the Dodge trucks we sent them in WWII, so much so that their Armies still use copies of them them today.

H



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